What's Happening With Coffee Prices in 2026?

Considering the state of coffee last year—which we talked about on the blog in February, 2025 and July, 2025—I, Justin, thought it might be a good idea to update you on where things are in the global coffee supply chain. If you have been a regular coffee customer—or have just watched the news cycles in the past 12 months—you likely know we are in the midst of a prolonged coffee crisis unlike anything we’ve experienced since the 1970s. I would love to say we are out of the woods, but we are not… yet. Here is a look at how we got here, where things stand, and what the next 12 months may look like. 

Where we are right now

Coffee is still in a high-price, high-volatility era. The C-Market, the mechanism that sets a baseline for prices globally, continues to trade at historically high prices, while the futures market has been swinging hard up and down (volatility). This is fed by two main factors: 

• Less coffee than the world expected (while demand is historically high)

• Higher friction getting coffee from origin to roaster (freight & financing costs, geopolitical risk)

That combination has kept coffee expensive and unpredictable. 

How we got here

1. Terrible weather in Brazil and Vietnam that significantly damaged their 2025 harvests. These two countries are the world's biggest coffee producers of Arabica and Robusta. They are the biggest drivers of global inventory, and in 2025 BOTH of them experienced historically low harvests, setting off panic-buying around the world. This caused prices to jump as inventory tightened. 

2. Low inventories and everyone buying at once. With inventories already thin, these weather scares turned into a price spike as roasters around the world rushed to cover their needs at the same time. 

3. Logistics shocks. While it was not "2021 crazy," there were still disruptions in shipping through the Red Sea / Suez Canal (Houthis and pirates wreaking havoc), forcing African coffee to ship around the horn of Africa. This caused lags in transit times and drove up shipping costs. 

4. EUDR and Tariffs. The European Union’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) has been a big “uncertainty tax” on coffee in 2025. The goal of this initiative is to limit deforestation and require traceability of all coffee coming into the EU, guaranteeing that it did not contribute to deforestation. A lofty goal. Their system is moving toward more traceability (a good thing), but the transition adds cost and complexity in the near-term.  In 2025, impending implementation of EUDR led to more European panic-buying as roasters sought to get out ahead of it. Presently, implementation is delayed. Recent news now suggests it will ultimately be scrapped as it is nearly impossible for producers to meet its demands—and Europeans are not about to give up coffee.  

US Tariffs added significantly to coffee price increases in 2025 before coffee was exempted in the fall. We saw tariffs ranging from 10–50% on all coffee, and we paid our fair share. Sadly, this was just straight taxation on an agricultural product that US roasters could not source from home. Seeing those tariffs on our invoices felt like a wealth transfer from our small business to the US government. We are grateful for the exemption, but the damage was done.  

5. Financing and cash flow strain across the supply chain. When green coffee prices jump, everyone needs more working capital (farmers, mills, exporters, importers, roasters). Higher green prices don’t just raise the price of beans—they also raise the cost of carrying inventory and securing supply. They also raise the price of the items used in the farming and production of coffee (fertilizer, equipment, labor) as people see that more money is flowing upstream. Everyone upstream wants to cash in, which adds financial strain. 

Is the coffee industry in a better place than it was last year?  

A fair and honest answer is: a little better operationally, not fully better economically. Many roasters have adapted, some supply signal outlooks are improving (Brazil and Vietnam harvests look good), and EUDR has been postponed. But the Brazil risk is still real, and volatility continues to persist in pricing and logistics, and inventories are still low. 

At Carabello, we became better business owners over the past 12 months, and we have more levers to pull now than we did at the beginning of this crisis. Our supply chain was stress-tested and found to be healthy, and we improved our operations. All of this will serve us well in future years.  

A reasonable 12-month outlook

We are closely monitoring the harvests in Brazil and Vietnam. At present they look good. If this holds, it will go a long way to beginning to replenish global supply and we will see pricing on the C-Market ease as that happens. If this holds, it will be a welcome relief for most everyone in coffee.  

We also continue to keep an eye on geopolitics for unrest and instability. More conflict in the Middle East and Americas would mean the rise of freight and logistics. We hope to see EUDR die or for coffee to be exempted. This will lift a regulatory burden that was about to be crippling and will also help ease prices and return European roaster inventories to lower levels, which equals more supply to go around. 

What does this mean for you?

Coffee prices are going to remain elevated as we move through 2026. Some even believe this is a “new normal” in terms of price, given the volatility we are seeing in geopolitics and markets around the world. Everyone is jumpy right now, so expect to see markets swinging up and down.  

At Carabello, we are endeavoring to hold things steady in 2026, absorbing more of the increase than we would prefer so that we can keep prices steady for you, the customer. As I mentioned earlier, this is where the “us becoming better business owners / leaders” benefits you. The better we captain the ship, the better a job we do at remaining appropriately profitable in turbulent times, which is important for longevity. We will continue to leverage our producer relationships to deliver consistently high quality coffee to you at as fair a price as we can. We are firmly rooted in the conviction that everyone in our supply deserves to feel like they are winning for our business model to be sustainable. So far so good, and by God’s grace this will continue to be our story. 

[Edited/Formatted by Sarah Cooney]